e-Fuels Bankable Feasibility Study – Phase 2

Objective

Bioagra, the largest bioethanol and ethanol producer in Poland, engaged io consulting to conduct a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) for the development of an e-fuels production facility. The objective was to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of producing e-methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from biogenic CO₂ and green hydrogen, identifying the optimal plant configuration to achieve the lowest levelised cost of production (LCOx).

Project Scope

The BFS was performed in two phases:

1. Phase 1 – Project Development Planning: Identified key design parameters and selected e-methanol and e-kerosene (SAF) as the most viable e-fuel products.
2. Phase 2 – Bankable Feasibility Study: Conducted detailed techno-economic analysis to define plant configurations, evaluate power supply strategies, and assess project risks.

Key activities included:

• Assessment of three e-fuel production pathways: CO₂ hydrogenation to e-methanol, Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS) + Fischer-Tropsch (FT) for SAF, and Methanol-to-Jet (MTJ).
• Engagement with multiple licensors to evaluate technology readiness and production efficiency.
• Analysis of power supply strategies, including direct renewable power, grid connection and renewable PPA options.
• Development of capital (CAPEX) and operational (OPEX) cost models.

Findings & Recommendations

Findings

• Optimal e-Fuel Production Pathway: e-methanol was identified as the most commercially mature and cost-effective pathway, with a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 8-9 and the greatest number of reference projects.
• Power Supply Strategy: Power variability significantly impacts facility design and costs. Fully grid-connected systems with a renewable PPA resulted in a 75% reduction in CAPEX compared to fully off-grid renewable-powered systems.
• Hydrogen Production & Storage: Electrolyser size varied significantly based on power supply strategy. Grid-connected options allowed for smaller, more cost-effective electrolysers.
• CO₂ Supply & Storage: The Goświnowice Ethanol Plant produces ~170ktpa of biogenic CO₂, which is sufficient for large-scale e-methanol and SAF production. Storage requirements varied based on power strategy.
• Licensing & Technology Readiness: Extensive licensor engagement was conducted, with multiple providers offering e-methanol, RWGS and FT technologies at various TRL levels.

Recommendations

1. Optimal e-Fuel Production Pathway: Prioritise e-methanol production in the next phase, with the potential for a Methanol-to-Jet (MTJ) bolt-on facility in the future.
2. Power Supply Strategy: Pursue renewable PPA opportunities to secure a stable power supply, reducing facility overdesign and storage requirements.
3. Hydrogen Production & Storage: Investigate technology selection for electrolysis (PEM, alkaline, SOEC) to optimise costs and efficiency.
4. CO₂ Supply & Storage: Optimise CO₂ storage design to account for power variability and ensure continuous production.
5. Licensing & Technology Readiness: Continue licensor screening to refine technology selection and define contracting strategies.